马云:比起幸福,人工智能将带来更多痛苦

龙腾网订阅号 2018-11-11 15:30:04

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-------------译者:c1937-审核者:龙腾翻译总管------------



Artificial intelligence and other technologies will cause people “more pain than happiness” over the next three decades according to Jack Ma the billionaire chairman and founder of Alibaba.

阿里巴巴的创始人、亿万富翁马云说:在未来的三十年,人工智能等技术将给人们带来更多的痛苦而非幸福。

[copy]“Social conflicts in the next three decades will have an impact on all sorts of industries and walks of life” said Ma speaking at an entrepreneurship conference in China about the job disruptions that would be created by automation and the internet. A key social conflict will be the rise of artificial intelligence and longer life expectancy which will lead to an aging workforce fighting for fewer jobs.

马云在绿公司年会上就自动化与互联网对就业的影响讲话时表示,未来三十年的社会矛盾将对各行各业产生影响。 而一个主要的社会矛盾就是人工智能的兴起和人类更长的预期寿命,这两者将导致老龄化劳动力不得不为更少的工作而战。

-------------译者:ZQ99-审核者:自从居士------------

Ma who is usually more optimistic in his presentations issued the warning to encourage businesses to adapt or face problems in the future. He said that 15 years ago he gave hundreds of speeches warning about the impact of e-commerce on traditional retailers and few people listened because he wasn’t as well-known as he is now.

在他的演讲中,马云一向是比较乐观的,他提出了警告去鼓励商人在未来去适应或面对问题。他说十五年前他发表了上百次去警告关于电商对传统零售商的影响的演讲,基本人没人听他的。因为那个时候他没有像现在这样有名气。[/copy]

“Machines should only do what humans cannot” he said. “Only in this way can we have the opportunities to keep machines as working partners with humans rather than as replacements.”

他说:“机器应该仅仅被用来去做那些人类做不了的工作”,“只有这样我们才有机会去让机器作为人类的工作伙伴而不是人类的替代者”。

Even so Ma acknowledged that in the future companies will likely be run by robots.
   
即使马云承认在未来,公司很可能会由机器人来运营。

 

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-------------译者:c1937-审核者:bs1747------------

Merveil Meok
To whom would businesses sell their products and services made and delivered by robots and computers when robots and computers have put most humans out of work?

当机器人和电脑让大多数人失业的时候,企业能把他们的产品和服务卖给谁?

prematureoptimsim
Demon Seed.

恶魔的种子

shanshuitianqi
Absolute bull-crap. There is nothing like Alibaba in the West. That is why even dumb dumb Trump has signed a contract for Ma to train Americans to use Alibaba to trade with China. It brings the vast ocean of global suppliers direct to small businesses even in remote areas. Nothing like Amazon or measly Ebay.

完全是废话。在西方没有一家公司能像阿里巴巴一样。这就是为什么即使是智障X2如川普也会签署一份让马云“培训”美国人使用阿里巴巴和中国交易的合约。这能让全球各大洋的供应商直接和小公司对话,就算是些偏远地方的。才不像亚马逊和渺小的易趣一样呢。

hardmoney
"...but at minimal or almost free cost." Are you one of those who believe someone or something else owes you a living?

“。。。。但是是以最小或者免费的成本。”你就是那种相信天上会掉馅儿饼的人?

-------------译者:c1937-审核者:龙腾翻译总管------------

rickydicky
The reality is that you are talking about a few people at the top of the pile. People on the bottom 90% will pay the price. This is about money and profit. If you replace a truck driver earning $50k a year the money saved is going in one direction and that's up.

现实是你谈论的这些只是关乎于处于社会顶层的人,而处于底层的90%的普通人将付出代价。这些无非是金钱和利益的交换罢了。当然,如果你的目标就是为了省钱而裁掉一个年薪5W刀的卡车司机,我无话可说。

wumogang
Apparently you do full throttle of arrogance.

显然你是傲到没边了。

hardmoney
Technology so often benefits corporations and not the public. One need look no further than those annoying business phone trees; i.e. press 1 for... press 20 for... Businesses don't want to be reached anymore they only want your dollars.

科技往往有益于公司而非公众。一个普通人,即使他仅仅需要一个看起来不是那么麻烦的电话服务:如xxxx,请按1…xxxx,请按20…的愿望也不会被满足。因为企业想要的只是你的美元而不是其他玩意儿。

-------------译者:c1937-审核者:bs1747------------

QuetzalLove1
Ma is knowing and honest. He is not speaking to mollify humans but to present the truth -- some people will adapt because of truth most will not because of fear to see what is ahead.

老马是个实诚人,他说这些不是为了动摇人心,只是告诉我们事实----有些人会面对事实,而有些则因为害怕未来而不愿面对。

Jiangmuhe
...and what is was always will be...the monsters are always of our own making.

。。。历史总是惊人的相似。。。怪物总是由我们自己创造出来。

Tolstoy5
. . . so long as no monster taps us on the shoulder.

。。。至少现在还没有怪物拍你的肩膀。

Who gives a S**t what he thinks

谁在乎他怎么想吖。

oldmusic3X3
Spoiler alx -- "Soylent Green is people!"

Spoiler alx - “Soylent Green是用人做的!”(反乌托邦电影超世纪谍杀案里的食品Soylent Green就是用人做的)

Ub0rNutB
That's basically the backround of Star Trek

这基本上就是星际迷航的背景了

-------------译者:看看世界-审核者:bs1747------------

ytrewq
King James Version is not 1700 years old. The Koran maybe? Not the Torah. Or is your point that organized religion is shit?

《圣经》(詹姆斯国王钦定版本)没有1700年,《可兰经》可能有,不是指圣经旧约之首五卷。或者你认为组织宗教是狗屎?

ytrewq
Unless of course the robots use you for mulch or to harvest your chemicals.

除非机器人用你当做“化肥”(护根)或采集你的化学成分。

[copy]Jiangmuhe
Most of our beloved jobs and so-called careers were redundant in the first place. AI not only shines a light on our own futility but will also allow us to bask in what we truly relish as a species: self-absorbed naval gazing. Which is ok because technology will soon be able to provide the food clothing and shelter for which we worry and work so hard for but at minimal or almost free cost. The paradigm shift swings upon us--bring on Universal Basic Income! Certainly an exciting time for humanity.

我们喜爱的许多工作和职业在最开始时也被认为是多余的,人工智能不仅能缓解疲劳,也让我们可以享受轻松做人的乐趣,它很棒,而我们因为这科技的进步,将很快只需花费很少或无的成本就可以解决衣食住行问题。范式转换对我们的影响是带来普遍的基本收入!这无疑是让人激动的。

-------------译者:mich-审核者:bs1747------------

ytrewq
It will be a replay of the industrial revolution without the happy ending and with nuclear weapons unless we make some big changes which we probably won't. Nukes will be everywhere and food and jobs will not but religion and leaders will flourish as people become more desperate. Not a good combination.
Oh well a few thousand years and we'll be aok having learned our lesson.

这将会重演工业革命和发展处核武器的悲剧。除非人类能跨越一大步进化,但明显不太可能。核武器无处不在,食物和就业机会愈加少。宗教和领导者们因人们普遍绝望而得以蓬勃发展。
哦,如此重复循环几千年了。如能吸取经验教训我们就会好的。[/copy]

-------------译者:mich-审核者:bs1747------------

zoidstar
The Mekon

(英国英雄dan dare漫画书的反派头目,是科学创造物,高智能,脑袋很大,脸是绿的,肌肉萎缩坐在飞行物上等等。可能这人想说以后人类进化会变成这样)

metalhead476
It seems as though I was born into a Philip K Dick novel turned to life. 

似乎好像我是诞生在Philip K Dick的科幻小说的人物,然后变成了现实

metalhead476
If you require currency to procure goods and services but your means of acquiring currency is taken away how then do you go about procuring those goods and services? Some things can be replaced through self-sufficiency but not all of the things under that umbrella.

我们需要货币来采购货物和服务,但是如果我们获取货币的途径被夺走,那么如何去采购这些货物和服务? 有些事情可以通过自给自足但并不是所有的都能如此做。

metalhead476
And a large proportion of those jobs (in both manufacturing and computational analysis) can conceivably be done better by a machine with AI than by a human. Just because they're new jobs doesn't mean they'll be permanent.

而这些工作很大一部分(包括制造和计算分析部分)都可以通过人工智机器能来比人类完成得更出色。他们是新型工作并不意味永久不变的。

 -------------译者:mich-审核者:bs1747------------

MehKybosh
A good comment. I'm depressed by it all to be honest.

说得不错,老实说我就因此倍感沮丧。

kropotkinsf
If AI takes us to a post-work world where humans can hunt in the morning fish in the afternoon rear cattle in the evening and criticize after dinner ... without ever becoming a hunter fisherman shepherd or critic then count me in. For then real communism -- the pinnacle of achievement -- will finally have arrived.

如果人工智能引领我们进入下班后的世界。那里人们可以早上起来打猎,下午钓鱼,晚上饲养牲畜,晚饭后夸夸其谈。。。而没有成为一个猎人,渔夫,牧人或者评论家,那么请带我去飞。。。到那时真正的共产主义--最高成就-将最终实现。

LibertineUSA
No actually everything is based on the assumption that people need money to survive (at least with our current economic system) unless you are predicating your "everything" on the assumption that our current economic system will be replaced by something else...

实际并非一切都是基于人需要钱才能得以生存这样的假设(至少根据我们目前的经济体制来看),除非你的假设里的一切基于我们目前的经济体制被其他替代。

 -------------译者:mich-审核者:bs1747------------

mrmikeeu
Erm... the advent of computers created most modern jobs. Jobs we couldn"t even think of 30 years ago. We never had it this good.

嗯。。。计算机的出现创造了现代的大部分工作机会。这些我们在30年前想都没想过的工作:我们未曾有过这么好的东西。

Heath Morley
Sky net Sew the seeds of our own destruction. Once the climate change kicks in properly AI will be all that is left.

天网正在播下我们自毁的种子。一旦气候变化大伙都得完蛋,人工智能可能是唯一幸存的东西。

mrmikeeu
There is no such thing as "the rich". Many wealthy people will be very interested in pursueing socialism (or whatever you want to call it) because it will actually keep them wealthy.

并没有富人这种东西。 许多富有的人将特别对追求社会主义感兴趣。(或者随便你说它是什么)因为它实际上能让他们一直富有。

ytrewq
And yet there is no government recognition or planning for this. In fact fools like Trump keep talking about an expanding economy and creation of millions of jobs despite the known threat of robotics and AI to existing jobs. This is happening now and the rich and the politicians don't understand it don't care and have no plan. Neither do I.

然而没有政府认可或规划这一点。事实上傻瓜们如特朗普不停声明要扩大经济和创造数以百万计的就业机会,机器人技术和人工智能对现有就业的威胁摆在眼前。富人和政治家不理解,不在乎,而且并没有计划。而我也没有。


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